Wales will try to beat New Zealand for the first time in 56 years on Saturday, and despite the hosts' poor record against the All Blacks I think it will be a fantastic game.
It will be one to excite all neutrals because both teams' natural way of playing is to attack.
I think Wales will try to play in their usual high-tempo style - the only thing that might change is that they will kick a little bit more.
Where once Shane Williams, Leigh Halfpenny or James Hook might have automatically decided to run the ball back - I think coach Warren Gatland may have told them to be a bit smarter this time.
He will have told them 'if there is a great defence coming up then you don't want to be caught too far behind your forwards'.
At the same time he will have told them that if the chase is poor 'you three guys have got the ability to tear anybody to bits and make ground'.
The important people for Wales will be the ball carriers up front, such as captain Ryan Jones, who will have to be particularly careful because he carries in one direction - head on, with little footwork.
 Ryan Jones will not be able to just put his head down and charge |
He will not get away with just putting his head down and making six or seven yards like he does for Ospreys, or sometimes in the Six Nations.
These guys don't commit too many to the ruck and they'll just be waiting there to smash him back.
Gatland and assistant coach Rob Howley will have thought about this and said that, rather than attacking one pass out from the breakdown, we will need to use two passes to attack in a slightly wider channel.
The hard yards have to be made by people like Jones, Andy Powell, Alun-Wyn Jones and Gethin Jenkins.
These guys have got to share the work and be smart about it, if they not they'll be hammered back - they'll be well aware of this.
There's several ways for them to operate, with the first being that the scrum-half passes to the first of Wales' big ball carriers and he feeds it on to the man outside.
The second sees the scrum-half missing the first man and passing a bit further out, which is riskier, and a third option is that the scrum-half passes it to those guys, runs in behind and gets a return pass from one of the forwards and then the ball goes down the backline.
They have to rotate those options.
The further out they can get, the more ground they are likely to make, and that will make the opposition think, well is it going to go short, is it going to be a little bit wider?
 | I think Wales have a got a very good chance, I just think New Zealand have the edge |
In order for Wales to play with their usual speed it's very important that scrum-half Gareth Cooper gets to the breakdowns quickly and gets the ball out to Stephen Jones - from there we know how good this Welsh backline can be.
One option is to take the direct route through centres Tom Shanklin and Jamie Roberts.
They'll be up against Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith and they might be able to target Smith - he's not weak but he's certainly a little bit weaker than Nonu!
Having said that, I would think about challenging Nonu because I think he's quite confrontational and if you can wind him up the wrong way - admittedly it's a fine line - it might be worth exploring.
New Zealand are as good in attack as they are in defence.
If Dan Carter is fit to play, and at the time of writing he has been named in their team, then there will be less kicking than if they are forced to turn to Stephen Donald at fly-half.
 Carter is a fine distributor but is also a real threat with ball in hand himself |
Carter likes to go out a little bit wider and the All Blacks have known for a long time that the wider you get after a few phases, the more space there is.
Once it's gone from the scrum-half to Carter he'll wang it out to Smith and they'll look to use their dangerous runners outside like Mils Muliaina.
It's just a shame winger Sitiveni Sivivatu is banned for the match because I like watching him play.
They are particularly dangerous when their captain, Richie McCaw, turns the ball over, because teams attack flatter these days and the longer the ball takes to come out of a ruck, the flatter they get.
Then they realise it's turned over but they're flat-footed and this is when New Zealand are very clever, because Carter will bang it out to Smith and they'll go from there.
For an illustration of how this works, see the graphic at the foot of the text.
The All Blacks attack very, very quickly and very, very wide and a lot of the time it's very difficult to defend.
That's a difference between New Zealand and lot of other teams, because when they get that turnover ball a lot of teams will kick it and chase, whereas New Zealand tend to look first before kicking.
If the kick's on then they will use it because they're very smart, but New Zealand try to play with a pace and tempo that teams cannot live with.
Unfortunately for Wales the All Blacks are coming off the back of quite a comfortable win against Australia in which they showed signs of playing some good rugby.
McCaw was at his best and New Zealand turned over a lot of ball.
 McCaw is renowned for winning opposition ball in the tackle area |
Another thing to watch is the All Blacks when they defend - it is almost like they are attacking.
Watch their intensity at the breakdown at the weekend. No-one in the northern hemisphere will have seen the intensity we'll see on Saturday.
It's not quite to the extent of lemmings going off a cliff, because they're not that silly, but they go flying in.
A lot of the basis of rugby union is the contact area and the All Blacks have always prided themselves that they are more physical than most teams - that is the area that they go out to win.
South Africa are the most physical side in the world at the moment and so far the All Blacks can't make a dent in the Springboks, but certainly up here they'll believe they have the edge in that department.
Wales have been in camp together for a long time but they've not had the luxury, and it is a big luxury, of playing a game together.
It's a shame really because it doesn't bode well for them.
I think Wales have a got a very good chance, I just think New Zealand have the edge, and for a number of reasons.
They haven't lost to Wales for 56 years, they've played a game and Wales haven't, and they're in pretty good form.
But I'm a big fan of Welsh rugby, and particularly the national side, and the only barrier they have is mental because they should believe that almost player for player they're as good as New Zealand, and better in some areas.
Overall it's a very good match-up but Wales have a mental hang-up over New Zealand and there's only one way they can get rid of that, and that's to beat them.
No comments:
Post a Comment